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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Fed Funds implied hikes keep to post-payrolls increases, having opened higher still with a potential boost from weekend Fedspeak before retreating through Asia hours ahead of a very light US docket with an eye instead on US CPI on Wed.
- It leaves 69bps priced for Sept before a cumulative 122bp to Dec and 130bps to a peak of 3.64% in Mar’23, with just shy of 60bps of cuts thereafter to Dec’23.
- Governor Bowman sees the case for continuing 75bp hikes until inflation slows in a meaningful way and needs "unambiguous evidence" before marking down her price forecasts, whilst currently seeing few if any indications that inflation has peaked.
- Daly (’24 voter) meanwhile seemed more open to a larger than 50bp hike with 50bp absolutely in play, need to keep open mind vs 50bp reasonable thing to do in Sept prior to payrolls).
Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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