Free Trial
USDCAD TECHS

Impulsive Rally Extends

US TSYS

Late Eurodollar/SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

EURJPY TECHS

Price Is Below The 50-Day EMA

US

Late Corporate Credit Update

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Fed Hike Path Keeps To Payrolls Surge Higher

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes keep to post-payrolls increases, having opened higher still with a potential boost from weekend Fedspeak before retreating through Asia hours ahead of a very light US docket with an eye instead on US CPI on Wed.
  • It leaves 69bps priced for Sept before a cumulative 122bp to Dec and 130bps to a peak of 3.64% in Mar’23, with just shy of 60bps of cuts thereafter to Dec’23.
  • Governor Bowman sees the case for continuing 75bp hikes until inflation slows in a meaningful way and needs "unambiguous evidence" before marking down her price forecasts, whilst currently seeing few if any indications that inflation has peaked.
  • Daly (’24 voter) meanwhile seemed more open to a larger than 50bp hike with 50bp absolutely in play, need to keep open mind vs 50bp reasonable thing to do in Sept prior to payrolls).

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

175 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.
  • Fed Funds implied hikes keep to post-payrolls increases, having opened higher still with a potential boost from weekend Fedspeak before retreating through Asia hours ahead of a very light US docket with an eye instead on US CPI on Wed.
  • It leaves 69bps priced for Sept before a cumulative 122bp to Dec and 130bps to a peak of 3.64% in Mar’23, with just shy of 60bps of cuts thereafter to Dec’23.
  • Governor Bowman sees the case for continuing 75bp hikes until inflation slows in a meaningful way and needs "unambiguous evidence" before marking down her price forecasts, whilst currently seeing few if any indications that inflation has peaked.
  • Daly (’24 voter) meanwhile seemed more open to a larger than 50bp hike with 50bp absolutely in play, need to keep open mind vs 50bp reasonable thing to do in Sept prior to payrolls).

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg