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Fed Hike Pricing Waiting On Payrolls

STIR FUTURES
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied hikes have largely tracked sideways since late Wednesday. They hold at 51bp for Jun and 101bp for Jul with only Sep softening marginally to 141.5bps with 197bps to year-end.
  • Mester (’22 voter) maintained her view of seeing 2x50bp hikes as of today instead of joining another hawk in Waller (voter) seeing 50bp moves at several meetings, but still sees rates probably needing to go above the longer-run neutral level.
  • Payrolls at 0830ET and ISM services at 1000ET before repeat appearances from both Vice Chair Brainard and Mester. Brainard yesterday noted a pause in September was “very hard to see”.

Source: Bloomberg

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