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Fed Hikes Claw Back European Session Dip

STIR FUTURES
  • Implied Fed hikes have fully clawed back the decline seen through the European morning but remain near post-May FOMC lows prior to the CPI beat two weeks ago.
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds imply 52bp for Jun, 99bps for Jul, 133bps for Sep and 181bps to year-end, in all cases back to where they sat both shortly before and after yesterday’s FOMC minutes.
  • Today’s data have been mixed. GDP was slightly softer than first thought in Q1 but consumption was stronger (boosting final domestic demand), pending home sales fell more than expected in another sign of the housing market under pressure whilst the Kansas Fed manufacturing index was surprisingly resilient in May compared to the slumps seen in other regional Fed surveys.

Cumulative hikes implied for specific meetings by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg

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