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Free AccessFed Hikes Consolidate Yesterday's Surge
- Fed Funds implied hikes have consolidated yesterday’s surge higher, with a 61bp hike priced for the Sept FOMC before a cumulative 91.5bp for Nov and 105bps over the three meetings to Dec.
- A peak is pushed out to Feb/Mar’23 meetings with 109bps of hikes to an implied 3.425% whilst yesterday’s larger increase s further out in 2023 seeing priced inversion trimmed from 60bps of cuts to 44bps currently.
- Bullard late yesterday repeated he wants a policy rate at 3.75-4% by year-end whilst noting that a soft landing doesn’t require gradualism. It didn’t move the needle from earlier comments by Daly (nowhere near done), Evans (3.75-4% rate by 2Q23 is sufficiently high) or Mester (haven’t seen inflation peak yet, prices only cooling if you squint).
- Further heavy Fedspeak schedule with repeat Bullard (’22) at 0730ET, Harker (’23) at 1030ET, Daly (’24) at 1115ET, Barkin (’24) at 1145ET and Kashkari (’23) at 1430ET.
FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied rate for Sep (white), Dec (yellow) and Dec'23-Dec'22 spread (green)Source: Bloomberg
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.