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Fed Hikes Dip But Still Near Post-FOMC Highs

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes have eased since Powell’s interview, which included seeking a convincing inflation drop, neutral rates not a stopping or looking-around point and no hesitation to raising above neutral if needed.
  • Evans (’23 voter) was more measured late on, expecting by July or Sep meetings to be talking about transitioning to 25bp hikes and that will have put in place “at least a few” 25bp hikes by Dec whilst expecting to go beyond neutral.
  • Pricing 53bp for Jun, 104bp for Jul, 145bp for Sep and 199bp for Dec.
  • Ahead: Housing-related data before lone Fedspeak from Harker (’23 voter) at 1600ET.

Cumulative hikes at specific meetings implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg

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