MNI: Fed: Policy Well Positioned To Respond To Risks

CANADA JUNE JOBS -1.4K VS FORECAST +20K, PRIOR +26.7K

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 5

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Plans To Borrow Hundred Bln Yuan CGB - Press

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY48 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1289 Fri; -0.35% Y/Y

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France to Issue Bills Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU/UK Syndications Due Next Week

CANADA JUN IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 62.5 SA

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Fed Implied Rates Build On Initially Mild Dovish Reaction To Payrolls

STIR
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates have recently pushed lower again, with little by way of new drivers but in a move that we feel better reflects the generally dovish payrolls report.
  • Cumulative cuts: 1bp Jul, 21bp Sep, 32bp Nov, 52bp Dec and 67bp Jan.
  • There continues to be extremely low odds of a July cut, with odds actually trimmed further this week as the data were generally dovish but not to the extent of warranting a cut.
  • September builds to 21bp of cuts, having increased from 18bp before Wednesday’s ADP report after higher jobless claims, a surprise decline in ISM Services and today’s payrolls. There is however still CPI next week plus Jul and Aug reports for both payrolls and CPI before that September meeting.
  • December builds to 52bp of cuts, 2.5bp since payrolls and 8.5bp since ADP.

136 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Fed Funds implied rates have recently pushed lower again, with little by way of new drivers but in a move that we feel better reflects the generally dovish payrolls report.
  • Cumulative cuts: 1bp Jul, 21bp Sep, 32bp Nov, 52bp Dec and 67bp Jan.
  • There continues to be extremely low odds of a July cut, with odds actually trimmed further this week as the data were generally dovish but not to the extent of warranting a cut.
  • September builds to 21bp of cuts, having increased from 18bp before Wednesday’s ADP report after higher jobless claims, a surprise decline in ISM Services and today’s payrolls. There is however still CPI next week plus Jul and Aug reports for both payrolls and CPI before that September meeting.
  • December builds to 52bp of cuts, 2.5bp since payrolls and 8.5bp since ADP.