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Fed Implied Rates Drift Higher Ahead Of PCE

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed overnight for near-term meetings but push more notably higher into 2024. The move came through European hours but with few new drivers after yesterday’s data strength.
  • Cumulative changes from 5.07% effective: +21bp Jul (unch), +29bp Sep (+1bp), +36bp Nov (+1.5bp), +33bp Dec (+2bp), +26bp Jan (+3.5bp). Additional hikes from current levels are seen reversed in May with its rate climbing 7bp on the day.
  • No Fedspeak scheduled today with next commentary from the FOMC Minutes on Jul 5 after Independence Day.
  • Data is in focus with monthly core PCE inflation for May after yesterday's downward revisions back in Q1, along with the MNI Chicago PMI and final U.Mich survey.

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