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Fed Implied Rates Give Back Retail Sales Increase

STIR
  • After initially pushing higher on the strength behind US retail sales (control group +1.0% vs cons 0.5), Fed implied rates have since more than unwound the increase.
  • FOMC-dated OIS is very marginally lower with +3bp for Sep and +10bp for the 5.43% Nov terminal, with 2024 implied rates on balance softening out to 4.94% for June (-2bps) for 49bp of cuts from terminal vs 47bp just before the data.

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