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Fed Implied Rates Holding Bulk Of Flash PMI Shift Higher

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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold the bulk of their increases on a large, services-led beat for the May flash PMIs, which built on a more modest uplift after jobless claims data showed another week of relative resilience.
  • Cumulative cuts: 0.5bp Jun, 3bp Jul, 15bp Sep, 21bp Nov and 35bp Dec.
  • It has pushed full pricing of a first 25bp cut to December and has removed almost half a cut come year-end compared to levels just before last week’s CPI and retail sales data.
  • That said the implied effective rate of 4.98% for the Dec’24 meeting remains off recent highs of 5.05% prior to the May 1 FOMC announcement.

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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold the bulk of their increases on a large, services-led beat for the May flash PMIs, which built on a more modest uplift after jobless claims data showed another week of relative resilience.
  • Cumulative cuts: 0.5bp Jun, 3bp Jul, 15bp Sep, 21bp Nov and 35bp Dec.
  • It has pushed full pricing of a first 25bp cut to December and has removed almost half a cut come year-end compared to levels just before last week’s CPI and retail sales data.
  • That said the implied effective rate of 4.98% for the Dec’24 meeting remains off recent highs of 5.05% prior to the May 1 FOMC announcement.