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Fed Implied Rates Holding Spillover Increases Ahead Of FOMC Minutes

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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold the day’s climb instigated early on in spillover from a hawkish RBNZ and less moderation than expected in UK CPI.
  • Earlier, a miss for existing home sales had little impact with an offset from stronger price growth.
  • Pricing is close to joint highs for the next two meetings but after that remains within recent ranges (e.g. the Dec’24 at 4.93% is within pre-May 1 FOMC highs of 5.05%).
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp Jun, 5bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 26bp Nov and 40bp Dec.
  • FOMC minutes at the top of the hour, with any discussion of the burden of proof for cuts to likely be closely scrutinized. Preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/64318/FOMCMinutesPrevMay2024.pdf

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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold the day’s climb instigated early on in spillover from a hawkish RBNZ and less moderation than expected in UK CPI.
  • Earlier, a miss for existing home sales had little impact with an offset from stronger price growth.
  • Pricing is close to joint highs for the next two meetings but after that remains within recent ranges (e.g. the Dec’24 at 4.93% is within pre-May 1 FOMC highs of 5.05%).
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp Jun, 5bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 26bp Nov and 40bp Dec.
  • FOMC minutes at the top of the hour, with any discussion of the burden of proof for cuts to likely be closely scrutinized. Preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/64318/FOMCMinutesPrevMay2024.pdf