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Fed Implied Rates Marginally Off Fresh Post-SVB Highs

  • Fed Funds implied rates are marginally off yesterday’s fresh highs, which saw a terminal effective rate nudge 5.50% for November at the end of the session, having last closed higher on Mar 7-9.
  • Cumulative hikes: +5.5bp to Sep (-0.5bp), +16.5bp to 5.495% Nov (-0.5bp).
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 1bp to Dec’23, 39bp to Jun’24 and 110bp to Dec’24. The first 25bp cut from current levels isn’t fully priced until the July meeting although comes very close with -22bps for June.
  • Lone scheduled Fedspeak today from VC Supervision Barr on Banking Services with no prepared text.

Source: Bloomberg

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