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Fed Implied Rates Still Pondering March Cut Ahead Of Jobless Claims

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have faded an earlier push higher in early European trade but most sit slightly higher on the day.
  • Near-term cut expectations are similar to levels from just before yesterday’s ADP miss, whilst later 2024 implied rates have pushed higher, helping the rate path push back closer to levels before a dovish reaction to Chair Powell's Spelman College discussion on Dec 1.
  • Of note, there are a cumulative 17bp of cuts for the March decision, 53bp for Jun and 123bp for Dec – see table.

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