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Fed Implied Rates Still Slightly Lower On The Day

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are somewhat lagging the intraday lift in 2Y Tsy yields, which after rising >4bps now sit ~0.5bp higher on the day.
  • Instead, Fed Funds rates sit between 1-1.5bp lower for May-Dec meetings.
  • Cumulative cuts are seen at 17.5bp for March, 64bp for June, 124bp for Nov and 140bp for Dec, only slightly higher than where they started the US session having dipped overnight.
  • NY Fed's Williams is still to come at 1515ET, speaking on the economic outlook, including text and with both moderated and media Q&A. It will mark his first public remarks since leading the charge shortly after the Dec FOMC decision in noting the market is reacting more strongly than the forecasts show and that it’s “premature” to be thinking about a March rate cut.
  • Re-upping the preview for tomorrow’s US CPI: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59430/USCPIPrevJan2024.pdf
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