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Fed Implied Rates Nudge Higher With Data Digested

STIR
[corrected typo in title]
  • Fed Funds implied rates have on balance only nudged higher after some fluctuations on US data, which included weaker overall retail sales but a notably stronger control group before being followed by weaker than expected IP.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.08% effective: 23.5bp (unch since before retail sales), 27bp Sep (+1bp), +31bp to terminal 5.39% Nov (+0.5bp).
  • Cuts have been trimmed slightly, with 80bps from terminal to Jun’24 from 81bp prior but still from 76bp yesterday, and 157bp from terminal to Dec’24 from 159bp prior and 148bp yesterday. See table.

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