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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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FED: July Minutes Suggest Rising Concern Over Falling Behind Cut Curve
As expected, the July FOMC minutes (link) signalled that participants were eyeing a cut in September, with "several" seeing it as "plausible" to cut already in July. There weren't many clues in the minutes on future monetary policy beyond that, with no mention for example of a potential >25bp cut.
- In keeping with the change of focus in the statement toward employment risks, though, the July Minutes suggest that cautionary voices on cuts were outnumbered by those who highlighted risks of cutting too little, too late. (Note in Fedspeak, "Many" is typically interpreted to be more participants than "some" which is more than "several").
- The minutes note "a majority of participants remarked that the risks to the employment goal had increased, and many participants noted that the risks to the inflation goal had decreased",
- On risks of falling behind the curve: "Some participants noted the risk that a further gradual easing in labor market conditions could transition to a more serious deterioration. Many participants noted that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity or employment. A couple participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way."
- On the more cautionary side, and keeping in mind there may be some overlap with the previous group here, "several participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a resurgence in aggregate demand and a reversal of the progress on inflation."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.