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Fed June Pricing Lags Whilst Later Meetings Clear Prior Debt Talk Impasse Levels

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have stepped higher through European hours, with June pricing back closer to yesterday’s high of +9bps but still below Friday’s pre-debt talk impasse levels of 10-11bps.
  • There are larger relative increases further out though, with the 4.77% for Dec’23 the highest since Mar 13.
  • Cumulative moves from current effective 5.08%: +6.5bp Jun (+0.5bp), +11.5bp Jul (+1.5bp), +4bp Sep (+4bp), -12bp Nov (+6bp), -31bp Dec (+7.5bp) and -49bp Jan (+8.5bp).
  • Logan (’23 voter) gives welcoming remarks 0900ET after on Thu saying she doesn’t yet see a case for pausing. Chair Powell speaks to the New Democrat Coalition lunch potentially at 1230ET. If similar to the March lunch with the Republican Study Committee, participants could tweet discussion points.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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