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Fed Nowcasts Show Divergence In Q2 GDP Expectations

US

Decent divergence in opinion on Q2 growth from the regional Fed nowcasts out today, each of which saw modest upgrades from their previous respective updates:

  • The New York Fed's GDP Model looks for 4.4% Q/Q annualized growth in the quarter. ("Positive surprises from ADP employment and business inventories data accounted for most of the increase in both quarters")
  • The St. Louis Fed's Real GDP Nowcast Model sees GDP at 8.7% (their model takes into account economic surprises vs consensus).
  • And as of Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed was tracking 10.3% (next update is Tuesday Jun 8).
  • Bloomberg consensus is for the quarter toward the higher end of those expectations, at 9.2%.


Source: St Louis Fed

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