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Fed Path Holding Yesterday’s Holiday Increase

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes so far keep to yesterday’s Columbus Day increases for meetings from Dec onwards as terminal and Dec’23 rates move back within 10bps of cycle highs in the days following the Sep FOMC.
  • Showing 74bp for Nov (unch), 129bps to 4.37% for Dec’22 (+2.5bp from Fri close), a terminal 4.69% Mar’23/May’23 (+4bp) and 4.44% Dec’23 (+2.5bp).
  • Sole Fedspeak from Mester (’22) at 1200ET. Said Friday not seen any evidence to warrant slowing the pace of hikes with more work to do whilst being ‘singularly focused’ on reducing inflation.
  • VC Brainard yesterday saw mon pol as needing to be restrictive for some time and warned of easing prematurely, but equally continued to note external factors with “the combined effect of concurrent global tightening is larger than the sum of its parts” and a smaller than first thought buffer from household excess savings.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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