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Fed Path Sits Close To Post-Dec FOMC Highs, "Patient" Fedspeakers Ahead

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are marginally lower overnight, chipping away at Friday’s push higher but still close to post-Dec FOMC highs.
  • Cumulative cuts: 5bp for Mar, 19bp for May, 40bp for June and 114bp for Dec.
  • CPI lands tomorrow whilst today’s Fedspeak is from those who have all spoken since Feb 2 payrolls and called for patience, with Gov. Bowman (permanent voter), Barkin (’24) and Kashkari (non-voter).
  • Recall, Bowman said on Feb 2 we’re not yet at a point where rate cuts are appropriate with an easing in financial conditions risking fueling inflation; Barkin said on Feb 8 that he wants conviction the inflation pullback is broadening and sustained (whilst also warning on the risk from conditions loosening); and Kashkari said on Feb 7 the Fed can take time to assess the data and saw 2-3 cuts this year as appropriate right now.

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