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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Fed hike expectations firmed further today, with Fed Funds futures now pricing in 205bp of tightening to come over this year's six meetings (i.e. more than 225bp for the year) - this is up more than 30bps since before Powell spoke on Monday.
- The trigger was potentially a combination of Citi's aggressive rate call change as well as Interfax headlines afterwards that Russia will focus on the complete liberation of Donbas, with the potential implication of a scaled back conflict.
- Citi now call for a total of 275bp of hikes this year, with four consecutive 50bp hikes in May-Sep, which leaves rates at 2.75-3.0% at the end of 2022.
- Pricing for immediate meetings see May firm slightly to 45bps and June pick up to 87bps, implying a 64% chance of 100bps of hikes over two meetings but also with a 14% chance of 125bps of hikes.
FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures cumulative hikesSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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