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(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile


Trend Structure Remains Bullish


Cautious Risk Appetite Gains Momentum


Key Support Still Exposed


Late Equity Roundup: 2W Highs

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  • Fed hike expectations firmed further today, with Fed Funds futures now pricing in 205bp of tightening to come over this year's six meetings (i.e. more than 225bp for the year) - this is up more than 30bps since before Powell spoke on Monday.
  • The trigger was potentially a combination of Citi's aggressive rate call change as well as Interfax headlines afterwards that Russia will focus on the complete liberation of Donbas, with the potential implication of a scaled back conflict.
  • Citi now call for a total of 275bp of hikes this year, with four consecutive 50bp hikes in May-Sep, which leaves rates at 2.75-3.0% at the end of 2022.
  • Pricing for immediate meetings see May firm slightly to 45bps and June pick up to 87bps, implying a 64% chance of 100bps of hikes over two meetings but also with a 14% chance of 125bps of hikes.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures cumulative hikesSource: Bloomberg

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