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Fed Pricing Holding Sizeable Spillover From UK CPI Beat

STIR
  • Fed-dated OIS holds sizeable spillover from BoE pricing surging after stronger than expected UK CPI earlier, countering McCarthy and Graves signalling a renewed impasse in debt talks.
  • Cumulative changes from 5.08% effective: +10bp Jun (+2.5bp on the day), +15.5bp Jul (+3.5bp), +7bp Sep (+4.5bp), -12bp Nov (+5bp), -33bp Dec (+4bp) and -52bp Jan (+7bp).
  • Relative to levels prior to Friday’s initial impasse headlines, largest increases have been concentrated for Jul/Sep meetings with a 6bp increase for both as the July meeting sees a terminal 5.23%.
  • Ahead, Gov Waller (voter) gives long-awaited remarks at 1210ET with text + Q&A, having last spoken on mon pol Apr 14 (need to tighten further with extent to hinge on incoming data, need to remain tight for substantial period). He’s followed by FOMC minutes at 1400ET.

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