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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates are near unchanged from yesterday’s close and in turn sit just 1-2bp higher than levels seen shortly before the release of Chair Powell’s House testimony text. We get further labor data today before tomorrow’s NFP report, with an added international angle from today’s ECB decision.
- Cumulative cuts: 0.5bp Mar, 5bp May, 21bp Jun, 36bp Jul and 88bp Dec.
- Kashkari (non-voter) told the WSJ yesterday that the first thing the Fed would do if inflation seems more entrenched than we think would be to hold for longer although it could justify a rate hike if it flares again. He expected two cuts in 2024 back in Dec and it’s hard to see that I would expect more rate cuts now.
- Powell speaks in front of the Senate today after yesterday’s House appearance. Yesterday’s prepared remarks repeated last week’s MPR that “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent” but Powell gave little attention to the strong January CPI print.
- We have also two appearances from Mester (’24 voter retiring June), first with a speech on the economic outlook at 1130ET (text tbd) before a CNBC interview at 1315ET. She said on Feb 29 that three cuts in 2024 feels about right.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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