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STIR: Fed Rate Path Consolidates Payrolls Dovish Tilt

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates broadly consolidate Friday’s dovish tilt after the nonfarm payrolls report saw the unemployment rate surprise higher along with arguably underwhelming revisions to the prior two months.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 22bp Dec, 29bp Jan, 46bp Mar and 67bp Jun.
  • SOFR terminal yields at 3.58% (looking out to end-2027) are only 3.5bp lower since the payrolls report but have added an entire 25bp cut since the high seen in the week after the presidential election.
  • Today sees a quiet macro docket, with data limited to the October wholesale release and NY Fed inflation expectations whilst the FOMC is now in blackout.  
  • See our recap of Friday’s payrolls report here and a broader review of last week’s data and notable Fedspeak here.
  • Wednesday’s US CPI report remains in focus – see our earlier summary table of analyst unrounded core CPI estimates ahead of the full MNI US CPI preview that will be published later today. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates broadly consolidate Friday’s dovish tilt after the nonfarm payrolls report saw the unemployment rate surprise higher along with arguably underwhelming revisions to the prior two months.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 22bp Dec, 29bp Jan, 46bp Mar and 67bp Jun.
  • SOFR terminal yields at 3.58% (looking out to end-2027) are only 3.5bp lower since the payrolls report but have added an entire 25bp cut since the high seen in the week after the presidential election.
  • Today sees a quiet macro docket, with data limited to the October wholesale release and NY Fed inflation expectations whilst the FOMC is now in blackout.  
  • See our recap of Friday’s payrolls report here and a broader review of last week’s data and notable Fedspeak here.
  • Wednesday’s US CPI report remains in focus – see our earlier summary table of analyst unrounded core CPI estimates ahead of the full MNI US CPI preview that will be published later today.