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Fed Rate Path Consolidates Recent Climb Higher

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit between unchanged and marginally higher on the day for mid-2024 meetings.
  • The move helped consolidate yesterday’s further lift for March implied rates to now imply 15.5bp of cumulative cuts as they continue to pull back from 25bps in late Dec. Another pertinent points include the implied 4.96% for May being the highest since the Dec FOMC plus 137bp of cuts for 2024 – see table.
  • Late yesterday, Gov. Bowman (voter), recently the most hawkish member of the FOMC, said it will become appropriate to begin the process of lowering the policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive should inflation continue to fall closer to 2%, but “we are not yet at that point”.
  • Ahead, VC Supervision Barr speaks on bank regulation in the sole scheduled Fedspeak for the day.

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