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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have consolidated most of yesterday’s further push lower, which sees a first cut landing with the May FOMC (26.5bp cumulative) and close to 50/50 odds it comes in March (11.5bp). There are 116bp of cuts priced for 2024 as a whole.
- Data is first in focus, starting with the monthly PCE report (after a surprise downward revision to Q3 for core PCE) and jobless claims (after last week’s surprise declines).
- NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) then follows at 0915ET. The topic, Innovations in Central Banking, could limit monetary policy relevance in the prepared text although subsequent Q&A and especially media availability could be more notable.
- Whilst typically at the dovish end of the FOMC spectrum, any further dovish commentary is unlikely to have as much sway as Waller’s musings on Tuesday, but his comments are still worth watching. Markets have been particularly sensitive to anything dovish of late and likely remain so, but it opens scope for a surprise in not being as dovish as expected, e.g. pushing back on the potential for nearer-term rate cuts.
- Providing a chapter of a BIS publication released Tue, he noted the recent decline in inflation has been encouraging and that "recent news about the long-run anchoring of inflation expectations in the United States is mostly reassuring".
- Chair Powell is however set to have the last say tomorrow before the FOMC blackout period begins.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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