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Fed Rate Path Continues Post-Minutes Drift Lower

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes drifted further lower overnight in reaction to the FOMC minutes, ahead of thin Thanksgiving trade.
  • Sitting at 52bp for Dec (unch), 89bp to 4.74% for Feb’23 (-2.5bp), terminal 4.965% May/Jun’23 (-4.5/5bp) and 4.56% Dec’23 (-7bp).
  • The terminal is down 11bps from Tuesday’s close, including higher claims & weak PMIs prior to minutes, but remains within the post Nov FOMC range of 5.2-4.85% from before and after the CPI miss.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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