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Fed Rate Path Dips Away From Post PCE Highs

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have drifted lower overnight, aided by softer than expected Spanish and German CPI inflation.
  • The rate path still remains within Friday’s monthly PCE-inspired range though and holds the majority of the jump higher seen after Thursday’s Q1 GDP/PCE data.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 3bp Jun, 9bp Jul, 20bp Sep, 25.5bp Nov and 36bp Dec (vs 34bp Dec Fri close).
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have drifted lower overnight, aided by softer than expected Spanish and German CPI inflation.
  • The rate path still remains within Friday’s monthly PCE-inspired range though and holds the majority of the jump higher seen after Thursday’s Q1 GDP/PCE data.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 3bp Jun, 9bp Jul, 20bp Sep, 25.5bp Nov and 36bp Dec (vs 34bp Dec Fri close).