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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Fed Funds implied hikes have picked off earlier session lows following multiple Fed speakers, after a beat for Philly Fed and initial claims were offset by weaker existing home sales earlier.
- The 62bp for the Sept FOMC is up from the reaction to yesterday’s FOMC minutes but the cumulative 133bps to a terminal 3.66% in Mar’23 remains 4bps off post-minutes levels and further off brief high of 3.75% prior to the minutes.
- Of the 2022 voters, Bullard looked through the CPI miss and explicitly called for a 75bp hike in Sept whilst keeping his prior rate call of 3.75-4% for year-end (https://marketnews.com/bullard-looks-through-cpi-miss-supports-75bp-hike) whilst George was more balanced as to how many more hikes could come (https://marketnews.com/george-strikes-a-balanced-tone-for-size-of-further-hikes).
- Kashkari (’23 voter) followed up but didn’t really expand on prior, post-CPI views of wanting rates at 3.9% by year-end, 4.4% end’23, whilst Daly (’24 voter) started proceedings by seeing a 50bp or 75bp hike as reasonable for Sept whilst wanting to raise to a little above 3% by year, with it not clear if that’s new from the prior view of 3.4% by year-end.
FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied rateSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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