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Fed Rate Path Drifts Lower With Payrolls In Focus

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have nudged a little lower to extend yesterday’s decline (helped by some dovish-leaning data) before today’s NFP report, back close to almost fully pricing a first cut in June.
  • Cumulative cuts: 1bp Mar, 7bp May, 24bp Jun, 40bp Jul and 93bp Dec.
  • Today’s sole scheduled Fedspeak comes from NY Fed’s Williams, early on at 0700ET in a moderated discussion at LSE (no text). Williams said on Feb 28 that he thought three cuts in 2024 was a "reasonable starting point" with cuts not being tied to quarterly SEP meetings.
  • Potential for pop-up appearances after payrolls ahead of the media blackout starting midnight ET, but we’d be surprised if it differed from the message from the FOMC to Congress that its waiting for “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent” is before cutting.

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