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Fed Rate Path Ending Modestly Lower After Payrolls and ISM Services Gyrations

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen some large swings today, but the net impact of the payrolls report and softer ISM services has been implied rates for the May meeting onwards falling 3-4bps since the data for 1-2bp declines on the day.
  • The latest profile sees 18.5bp of cumulative cuts for March (-1bp since data), 63bp for June (-3.5bp) and 139bp for Dec (-4bp).
  • Looking through analyst reports seen to date, a majority look for start dates beyond March although one notable name in the March camp is Goldman who continue to call for three consecutive starts in March, May and June before quarterly cuts to a terminal 3.25-3.5%.

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