Free Trial

Fed Rate Path Extends Post-CPI Push Higher

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted through European hours, skewed for 2H24 meetings, on limited new macro drivers as it builds on yesterday’s post-CPI reaction.
  • Cumulative cuts: 0.5bp Mar (unch from yday close), 3.5bp May (+0.5bp), 19bp Jun (+0.5bp), 31bp Jul (+2bp) and 82bp Dec (+2.5bp) – see table.
  • The Dec'24 implied rate sits 11bp higher than before Friday's payrolls, 7bp of which has come since CPI. Its recent high from late Feb implied just above the 75bp of cuts for 2024 penciled by the median FOMC participant in the Dec SEP.
  • A quiet session ahead, with macro focus on tomorrow’s PPI and retail sales data.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.