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Fed Rate Path Holding Higher Push Overnight Post-Powell

STIR FUTURES
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  • Fed Funds implied hikes have faded from overnight highs but remain above yesterday’s close after Powell opened the door to a 50bp hike.
  • 41bp for Mar (+0.5), cumulative 74.5bp for May (+1bp), 106bp to 5.64% terminal in Sep (+1.5bp) before 13bp of cuts to 5.51% year-end (+0.5bp). The parallel shift higher in 2H rates has held that half a cut priced since the core PCE beat.
  • GS expect the median dot will rise by 50bp to 5.5-5.75% in 2023 in the March meeting and see the same rate for their terminal call (+25bps).
  • Fed: Powell round two at the House (1000ET) plus Barkin (’24 voter) at 0800ET having on Mar 3 called for a shallower/more deliberate rate path to give more flexibility and the Fed Beige Book (1400ET).


FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg


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  • Fed Funds implied hikes have faded from overnight highs but remain above yesterday’s close after Powell opened the door to a 50bp hike.
  • 41bp for Mar (+0.5), cumulative 74.5bp for May (+1bp), 106bp to 5.64% terminal in Sep (+1.5bp) before 13bp of cuts to 5.51% year-end (+0.5bp). The parallel shift higher in 2H rates has held that half a cut priced since the core PCE beat.
  • GS expect the median dot will rise by 50bp to 5.5-5.75% in 2023 in the March meeting and see the same rate for their terminal call (+25bps).
  • Fed: Powell round two at the House (1000ET) plus Barkin (’24 voter) at 0800ET having on Mar 3 called for a shallower/more deliberate rate path to give more flexibility and the Fed Beige Book (1400ET).


FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg