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Fed Rate Path Holds Last Week’s Climb, Rare Schmid Appearance Late On

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from Friday’s close, and in doing so keep to last week’s push to no longer fully pricing a first cut at the June FOMC after hawkish jobless claims data and pushback from Fed Gov. Waller.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Mar, 5.5bp May, 20bp June and 83bp Dec.
  • The latter saw a low of 77.5bp cuts priced for 2024 early on Friday in a further step towards the 75bp of cuts pencilled in by the median FOMC participant at the Dec SEP.
  • KC Fed’s Schmid (’25 voter) is the sole scheduled speaker today, late on at 1940ET on the economic and policy outlook incl text. These should be the first mon pol relevant remarks since his appointment in August.

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