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Fed Rate Path Holds Post-FOMC Renewed Cut Expectations

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes have only chipped away at yesterday’s push lower with the press conference.
  • 20.5bp for Mar, a cumulative 30bp for May and 31bp to technically a terminal 4.90% Jun before cutting to 4.40% in Dec.
  • The more notable move remains increased cut expectations in 2H23, shifting from 44bps to 49bps from the June peak to Dec. However, this is still similar to levels seen in days after last month’s payrolls & ISM services miss (ahead of both reports due tomorrow).
  • First though, clear potential for spillover from the BoE and then ECB decisions.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg


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