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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have pushed higher overnight after regional German CPI readings pose upside to the national core print.
- Implied rates unwind most if not all of yesterday’s decline but keep to recent ranges. Cumulative cuts: 0.5bp Mar, 4.5bp May, 17.5bp Jun, 31bp Jul and 78bp Dec – see table.
- Yesterday’s Fedspeak saw Williams (voter) view three cuts in 2024 as a “reasonable starting point” with cuts not needing to tie in with quarterly Fed forecasts, whilst Bostic (’24) reiterated seeing a first cut in the summer and Collins (’25) needs "greater clarity" of sustained 2% inflation.
- Ahead, Bostic (’24) returns after those limited remarks yesterday (this time livestreamed), before Goolsbee (’25), two appearances from Mester (’24 retiring June) and Williams (voter) again late on at 2010ET in a moderated discussion.
- Goolsbee last spoke Feb 14 – inflation can be a bit higher and still on track to 2%, don’t believe last mile of inflation fight the hardest, housing still biggest piece of inflation puzzle.
- Mester last spoke Feb 6 – don’t feel any need to rush rate cuts (or to act only at meetings with forecasts), prudent to wait for more data to confirm trends and open to possibility that neutral rate has risen. She also saw no urgency to slow the pace of QT.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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