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Fed Rate Path Mostly Consolidates ECI Push Higher To Start FOMC Day

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have given back just a small part of yesterday’s ECI-instigated lift in the rate path, leaving a path that’s mostly back at levels before last week’s GDP report and the surprise rise in continuing jobless claims except for late 2024 - see table.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: 0bp for today’s FOMC (unch), +7bp for Dec (+0.5bp) and +10bp for Jan (unch).
  • Cuts from terminal: 24bp to Jun’24 and 77bp to Dec’24, the latter having yesterday moved further off the high end of the 65-85bp range seen since last month’s US CPI.
  • Ahead of today's FOMC decision and press conference, the Dec'24 implied rate currently sits 11bps lower than shortly before Chair Powell spoke inter-meeting at the Economic Club of NY.

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