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Fed Rate Path Mostly Holding Large Gains Post Empire Beat

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates have cooled just slightly after limited Barkin (’24) comments so far, although hold large increases on the day.
  • 22bp for the May 3 FOMC (+1.5bp on the day).
  • A steady rise in rates ever since a sizeable beat for an equally volatile Empire State mfg index currently sees a cumulative 29bp of hikes to 5.12% in June (+4bp), before being fully unwound in the Nov FOMC on its way to 25bp of cuts from current levels with 4.58% in Dec (+9.5bp).

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