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Fed Rate Path Near Post-CPI Lows Ahead Of PPI

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen a continued move lower since the BOE decision, with the June rate -1bp on the day, Dec rate -3bp and Jan -4bp.
  • It helps reinforce the market view that last week’s hike is the final for the cycle (-2bps for Jun) before four consecutive cuts seen from September through to January from the current effective rate of 5.08%. Pre-CPI comparison in the table below.
  • US PPI inflation ahead with consensus for core measures to bounce back with 0.2/0.3% M/M readings despite a further improvement in supply chain pressures, along with jobless claims. It’s followed shortly after by Kashkari (’23 voter) in moderated Q&A at 0845ET speaking officially for the first time since the May FOMC.


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