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Fed Rate Path Pushes Higher Ahead Of Minutes & Notable Data

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are off overnight highs but have still pushed higher in a move that could dent the impact of any relatively hawkish content in today’s FOMC minutes.
  • Still to come before then, Fedspeak from Barkin (’24 voter) at 0830ET including text before ISM mfg and JOLTS both at 1000ET.
  • There is 20.5bp of cumulative cuts priced for March, 69bp for June and 147bp for Dec. March implied rates are at the highest since Dec 19/20 whilst the Dec implied rate of 3.86% is up 10bps from Friday’s close.

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