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Fed Rate Path Slide Stabilising After Nearly 20bp Decline In End-23

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes begin to stabilise after the decline across the curve on the hit from weaker AHE growth and equally notable very large ISM services miss.
  • The combination pushes a greater likelihood of a further downshift in February with 31.5bp for Feb 1 (-4.5bp), cumulative 51bp to 4.84% (-6bp), terminal 4.95% Jun (-8bp) and 4.49% Dec (-18bp).
  • The levelling off comes with some Fedspeak from Cook (caution against putting too much weigh on recent favour PCE inflation prints, but prepared prior to payrolls) and Bostic (repeats sees rates above 5% and hold into 2024).


Source: Bloomberg

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