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Fed Rate Path Starts Day Lower Ahead Of ISM Services

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have dipped 0-2bps overnight, pulling back off yesterday’s highs that had come close to recovering to levels seen shortly before Friday’s ISM mfg miss. European data were mixed rather than outright dovish.
  • Cumulative cuts: 0.5bp Mar, 5.5bp May, 21bp Jun, 35bp Jul and 86bp Dec.
  • The more heavily weighted ISM services index follows today.
  • Today’s scheduled Fedspeak is limited to VC Supervision Barr (voter) on financial matters. Potential for surprise appearances like we saw yesterday with Bostic talking on fears of triggering pent-up exuberance, but Powell’s House testimony tomorrow looms large.

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