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Fed Rate Path Unchanged With ECI Eyed

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged on Monday’s close with the Dec’24 holding within 2bps of highs seen after last week’s core PCE upside surprise for Q1.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp May, 3.5bp Jun, 8.5bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 24bp Nov and 35bp Dec.
  • Further Q1 data is in focus today, with the Employment Cost Index giving a more comprehensive look at wage pressures ahead of Friday’s AHE update for April.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged on Monday’s close with the Dec’24 holding within 2bps of highs seen after last week’s core PCE upside surprise for Q1.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp May, 3.5bp Jun, 8.5bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 24bp Nov and 35bp Dec.
  • Further Q1 data is in focus today, with the Employment Cost Index giving a more comprehensive look at wage pressures ahead of Friday’s AHE update for April.