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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have lifted off earlier lows along with the paring of equity declines but it only takes the path back to levels shortly before PPI inflation and the surprising increase in initial jobless claims, for solid further declines on the day after slipping on PacWest concerns (still -25% on the day).
- The current effective 5.08% is seen as the peak for the cycle, with roughly 50% chance of a 25bp cut in June before more than pricing the cut for Sept (-32bps at 4.76%, -3bp on the day). The four-month turnaround from the last hike compares with historical averages of 6-7 months.
- All up, Fed Funds currently price 4x25bp cuts starting in Sept through to Jan [see table], although as noted in the MNI Inflation Insight, some analysts push back on cut expectations amidst sticky core CPI inflation.
- Fedspeak: Kashkari ('23 voter) and Gov Waller (voter) haven't moved the needle today. Tomorrow sees Daly ('24 voter) limited to a commencement speech before Bullard (non-voter) and Gov Jefferson (voter) in a panel late on.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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