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Fed Rate Path Unwinds Post-Powell Lift But Keeps Hawkish Dot Plot Impact

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have ebbed lower today, with much of the move coming before an ultimately small miss for the composite PMI in the flash Sept release amidst a miss for services and beat for mfg.
  • It leaves a path slightly lower than just before Chair Powell took the podium having reversed further gains since then, but keeps the sizeable shift higher from the original FOMC announcement and its hawkish dot plot.
  • Today’s Fedspeak has seen Gov. Bowman seemingly confirm herself as the particularly elevated 6.1% dot for end-2024, whilst Daly (’24 voter) saw patience as a prudent strategy right now.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +5.5bp to Nov (-1.5bp on the day), +12.3bp to Dec’23 (-1bp) and +12.7bp to Jan’24 for a terminal 5.46% (unch).

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