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Fed Rates Back At Pre-Payrolls Levels

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pulled back from initial declines with the payrolls report, to now sits slightly higher for meetings through Mar-July and are fractionally lower beyond that.
  • Cumulative cuts: 0.5bp Mar, 6.5bp May, 23bp Jun, 39bp Jul and 94bp Dec.
  • At one point, there had been 103bp of cuts priced for 2024.
  • The FOMC blackout starts midnight ET, with focus firmly on Tuesday’s US CPI – the MNI Preview will be published on Monday.

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