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STIR: Fed Rates Consolidating Dovish Waller Impact

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates continue to be weighed by yesterday’s dovish musings of Governor Waller (permanent voter) which included that three or four cuts this year could be possible.
  • The 41.5bp of cuts priced for the year is below lows seen after Wednesday’s CPI and has fully reversed the boost from Friday’s strong payrolls report.
  • With no scheduled Fedspeak today, Waller remains the last speaker heading into the media blackout that starts tonight at midnight before the FOMC 28-29 meeeting.
  • Published 0530ET, Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (non-voter) hawkish comments to WSJ haven’t had a discernible impact, not helped by being taken on Tuesday prior to CPI and already known to be hawkish after her surprise dissent to a 25bp cut last month.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jan, 8.5bp Mar, 14bp May, 24.5bp Jun, 28.5bp Jul and 41.5bp Dec. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates continue to be weighed by yesterday’s dovish musings of Governor Waller (permanent voter) which included that three or four cuts this year could be possible.
  • The 41.5bp of cuts priced for the year is below lows seen after Wednesday’s CPI and has fully reversed the boost from Friday’s strong payrolls report.
  • With no scheduled Fedspeak today, Waller remains the last speaker heading into the media blackout that starts tonight at midnight before the FOMC 28-29 meeeting.
  • Published 0530ET, Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (non-voter) hawkish comments to WSJ haven’t had a discernible impact, not helped by being taken on Tuesday prior to CPI and already known to be hawkish after her surprise dissent to a 25bp cut last month.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jan, 8.5bp Mar, 14bp May, 24.5bp Jun, 28.5bp Jul and 41.5bp Dec. 
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