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STIR: Fed Rates Extend Reversal Of Hawkish Tilt On FOMC

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have continued to reverse the hawkish tilt higher seen with the initial FOMC decision, extending what at the time was only a modest paring with Powell’s press conference.
  • Only March holds a notable increase compared to pre-FOMC levels (+2.5bps to leave only 5bp of cuts priced) whilst implied rates from September onwards are a little lower.
  • The 48bp of cuts for 2025 is off Monday’s recent dovish extremes of 53bp but is still elevated compared to most of January.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 5bp Mar, 14bp May, 25bp Jun, 31bp Jul and 48bp Dec.
  • SOFR futures show larger post-FOMC declines, currently sitting ~5bps lower for 2027 contracts.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have continued to reverse the hawkish tilt higher seen with the initial FOMC decision, extending what at the time was only a modest paring with Powell’s press conference.
  • Only March holds a notable increase compared to pre-FOMC levels (+2.5bps to leave only 5bp of cuts priced) whilst implied rates from September onwards are a little lower.
  • The 48bp of cuts for 2025 is off Monday’s recent dovish extremes of 53bp but is still elevated compared to most of January.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 5bp Mar, 14bp May, 25bp Jun, 31bp Jul and 48bp Dec.
  • SOFR futures show larger post-FOMC declines, currently sitting ~5bps lower for 2027 contracts.
image