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Fed Rates Getting Close To Fully Pricing March Cut After UK CPI Spillover

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have been biased lower overnight by notably softer than expected UK CPI inflation.
  • January pricing is relatively little changed (3bp of cuts) but cumulative cuts have lifted to now 22.5bp for March, 48bp for May, 73bp for June (from 68bp yesterday) and 151bp for end-2024 (from 143bp).
  • It leaves the end-2024 implied rate below closes seen in the two days after last week’s FOMC decision.
  • Today’s Fedspeak sees media appearances from Goolsbee (’25) and Harker (who after voting in 2023 will hold a non-voting position until retirement due by Jun’25). Goolsbee has spoken regularly, latest saying late yesterday the market got a little ahead of itself on cuts and that the Fed should not be bullied by what the market wants. It will be Harker’s first remarks since early Nov.

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