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Fed Rates Give Back Powell "Lack Of Progress" Pop Higher

STIR
  • With the Powell discussion over, Fed Funds implied rates have pulled back off highs seen initially on Powell saying recent data have shown a lack of further progress on inflation and that it will likely take longer to get confidence on inflation (which also sparked 2y Tsy yields clearing 5%, now 4.964%).
  • Rates are 1-1.5bps higher than before the discussion, coincidentally with a very similar path prior to last week’s softer PPI inflation.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 4bp Jun, 11.5bp Jul, 23bp Sep, 29bp Nov and 40bp Dec.

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