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Fed Rates Hold Most Of ADP Rise Ahead Of NFP

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed to year end after jumping with yesterday’s ADP beat, although have continued to increase further out into 2024.
  • The Bloomberg survey median for NFP has increased 5k to 230k whilst more easily trackable views were unchanged for GS (250k) and MS (270k) post-ADP, albeit already at the high end of consensus.
  • Cumulative change from 5.08% effective: +21.5bp Jul (-0.5bp), +29bp Sep (unch), +36.5bp Nov (+0.5bp), +33.5bp Dec (+1.5bp), +29bp Jan (+3bp).
  • Cuts from the Nov terminal: 46bps to Jun’24 (from 50bp yesterday), 117bp to Dec’24 (from 120bp).

Source: Bloomberg

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